Income resilience and finance readiness remain central

01 · Decision dated 11 August 2026

决定日期：2026年8月11日

Interest rates: no change at the August decision

利率：8月决定维持不变

The RBA left its cash rate target at 4.35% on 11 August 2026. It described inflation as still elevated and noted uncertainty around energy supply and economic activity.

RBA 于2026年8月11日将现金利率目标维持在4.35%，表示通胀仍偏高，并指出能源供应及经济活动存在不确定性。

ANND assessment: confirm finance approval, expiry dates and debt-service capacity before committing to a short settlement. An unchanged cash rate does not ensure unchanged lending margins.

ANND 分析：承诺短期交割前，应确认融资批准、有效期和偿债能力。现金利率不变并不保证贷款机构利差不变。

02 · June quarter 2026; quarter-on-quarter

2026年6月季度；环比

Australian economy: modest quarterly expansion

澳洲经济：季度温和增长

ABS reported real GDP growth of 0.4% in the June quarter 2026, seasonally adjusted. The release was published on 2 September 2026.

ABS 报告，经季节调整，2026年6月季度实际 GDP 增长0.4%。该数据于2026年9月2日发布。

ANND assessment: aggregate growth does not establish the viability of an individual tenant or business. Review current sales, arrears and working capital alongside national conditions.

ANND 分析：整体增长不能证明个别租户或生意的经营可行性。应结合全国状况，审查当前营业额、欠款和营运资金。

03 · August 2026; month-on-month

2026年8月；月度环比

Residential property: Sydney values weakened in August

住宅物业：悉尼8月价值走弱

Westpac IQ, reporting Cotality’s August index, recorded a 0.9% monthly fall nationally and a 1.4% fall in Sydney. These are residential index movements, not commercial-property valuation changes.

Westpac IQ 引用 Cotality 8月指数，记录全国住宅价值环比下降0.9%，悉尼下降1.4%。这是住宅指数变动，并非商业物业估值变化。

ANND assessment: residential equity may influence some buyers’ funding capacity. Refresh evidence of funds; do not apply a residential index mechanically to a shop, office or warehouse.

ANND 分析：住宅净值可能影响部分买家的融资能力。应更新资金证明，不宜将住宅指数直接套用于商铺、办公室或仓库。

04 · August report; industrial measure Q2 2026, Australia

8月报告；工业指标为2026年第二季度澳洲数据

Commercial property: compare income at the asset level

商业地产：按具体资产比较收入

JLL’s 13 August review describes an income-led investment environment. It reports national industrial gross take-up of 1.18 million sqm in Q2 2026 and discusses office, retail and industrial conditions.

JLL 于8月13日发布的评论描述了以收入为主导的投资环境，报告2026年第二季度全国工业物业总承租面积为118万平方米，并讨论办公、零售和工业市场状况。

ANND assessment: gross take-up is leasing activity, not net absorption or sales volume. For Sydney assets, compare effective rent, incentives, tenant covenant, lease expiry and capital expenditure with local evidence.

ANND 分析：总承租面积反映租赁活动，并非净吸纳量或销售量。评估悉尼资产，应结合本地证据比较实际有效租金、租赁优惠、租户履约能力、租约到期日和资本开支。

05 · July 2026 forecast vintage; calendar years 2026–2027

2026年7月版预测；2026至2027日历年

Global economy: forecasts remain conditional

全球经济：预测仍有前提条件

The IMF’s July 2026 update projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It highlights uneven activity and risks from conflict and financial repricing.

IMF 于2026年7月发布的更新预测，2026年全球增长3.0%，2027年增长3.4%，并强调经济活动不均衡，以及冲突和金融重新定价的风险。

ANND assessment: assess energy, freight and currency exposure for tenants and businesses. These forecasts are context, not a prediction of Sydney property returns.

ANND 分析：评估租户和生意对能源、运费及汇率的风险敞口。这些预测仅提供背景，并非对悉尼物业回报的预测。

Actions to consider · 可考虑的行动

• Owners: prepare current leases, outgoings, arrears and capital works information.

  业主：准备最新租约、物业支出、欠租及资本工程资料。

• Buyers: confirm available funds and model a longer settlement or letting period.

  买家：确认可用资金，并测算更长交割或招租期的影响。

• Watch the next RBA decision and subsequent ABS releases; update assumptions only when fresh evidence is available.

  关注下一次 RBA 决定及后续 ABS 发布；取得新证据后再更新假设。

Questions for your next decision · 决策前的问题

• How much of the property’s income is secure beyond the next lease expiry?

  下一次租约到期后，物业收入中有多少仍有保障？

• Can the buyer still complete if a valuation or lending decision changes?

  如果估值或贷款决定改变，买家是否仍能完成交易？