Property & economy · 19–25 October 2026 · week ending 25 October
Annual growth data and inflation risks frame property decisions
年度增长数据与通胀风险：物业决策背景
2026年10月19日至25日；截至10月25日的一周
Executive Summary · 内容摘要
- ABS reports 2.3% real GDP growth in the 2025–26 financial year.
ABS 报告2025–26财年实际 GDP 增长2.3%。
- New RBA commentary describes inflation risks alongside weaker activity.
RBA 新评论描述通胀风险与经济活动转弱并存。
- Property and global forecast background retain their original dates and reference periods.
物业及全球预测背景保留原发布日期和参考期。
图片为 AI 生成的主题示意图，并非所列物业的照片，不包含市场数据。
01 · Released 23 October 2026; financial year 2025–26, Australia
发布：2026年10月23日；2025–26财年，澳洲
Australian economy: annual accounts released
澳洲经济：年度账户发布
The 23 October release reports 2025–26 GDP growth of 2.3% in chain-volume terms and GDP per capita growth of 0.8%.
10月23日发布的数据报告，2025–26财年 GDP 按链式数量口径增长2.3%，人均 GDP 增长0.8%。
ANND assessment: distinguish real annual growth from current local trading. Tenant affordability still requires actual rent, sales and margin evidence.
ANND 分析：应区分实际年度增长与当前本地经营情况。租户负担能力仍需实际租金、营业额及利润率证据。
Source / 来源：ABS · Australian System of National Accounts ↗02 · 21 October 2026; national monetary-policy commentary
2026年10月21日；全国货币政策评论
Rates and demand: inflation risks alongside slowing activity
利率与需求：通胀风险与经济活动放缓并存
In his 21 October discussion, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser described a deteriorating inflation outlook alongside easing labour conditions and subdued consumption.
副行长 Andrew Hauser 在10月21日讨论中描述，通胀前景恶化，同时劳动力状况放缓、消费疲弱。
ANND assessment: stress-test finance and tenant cash flow under more than one rate path. A speech is not a rate decision or a commitment to the next move.
ANND 分析：应按多种利率路径测算融资及租户现金流。讲话并非利率决定，也不是对下一步行动的承诺。
Source / 来源：RBA · Andrew Hauser, 21 October fireside chat ↗03 · Released 9 October 2026; September quarter, Sydney; checked 26 October
发布：2026年10月9日；9月季度，悉尼；10月26日核查
Residential: earlier quarterly rental evidence
住宅：较早季度租赁证据
Cotality’s 9 October release reports Sydney dwelling rents down 0.4% over the September quarter. This is rechecked background, not a new weekly movement.
Cotality 于10月9日发布的报告指出，悉尼住宅租金在9月季度下降0.4%。这是重新核查的背景，并非本周新变化。
ANND assessment: use local comparable rents and realistic letting periods. A citywide rental index is not an individual appraisal or sale-price measure.
ANND 分析：采用本地可比租金及现实出租时间。全市租金指数不是个别估租或售房价格指标。
Source / 来源：Cotality · Quarterly Rental Review ↗04 · Released 12 October 2026; Q3 2026, Sydney CBD
发布：2026年10月12日；2026年第三季度，悉尼 CBD
Office: Sydney CBD quarterly evidence
办公：悉尼 CBD 季度证据
JLL’s 12 October research reports Sydney CBD vacancy of 13.6% in Q3 2026, down from 13.9% in Q2. It is earlier quarterly research newly considered in this edition.
JLL 于10月12日发布的研究报告，悉尼 CBD 2026年第三季度空置率为13.6%，低于第二季度的13.9%。这是本期纳入的较早季度研究。
ANND assessment: distinguish CBD aggregate vacancy from a building’s leasing prospects. Compare grade, location, incentives and available contiguous space.
ANND 分析：应区分 CBD 整体空置率与个别物业出租前景。比较等级、位置、优惠及可提供的连续空间。
Source / 来源：JLL · original Q3 office research ↗05 · Released 1 October 2026; national context, checked 26 October
发布：2026年10月1日；全国背景，10月26日核查
Retail and industrial: preserve sector distinctions
零售与工业：保留类别差异
The 1 October RBA review describes improving retail fundamentals and industrial demand alongside new supply. This remains national background.
RBA 于10月1日发布的评估描述零售基本面改善，以及工业需求与新增供应并存。这仍是全国背景。
ANND assessment: retail tenant margins and occupancy costs need separate testing from warehouse specification and supply competition. National conditions do not establish an individual property’s value.
ANND 分析：零售租户利润率及场地成本，应与仓库规格和供应竞争分别测算。全国状况不能确立个别物业价值。
Source / 来源：RBA · October Financial Stability Review ↗06 · October 2026 outlook; released 13 October; information cut-off 1 October
2026年10月展望；10月13日发布；资料截止10月1日
Global economy: earlier forecast remains a scenario
全球经济：较早预测仍是情景
The October IMF outlook projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, using information through 1 October for its chapter-one projections.
IMF 10月展望预测全球经济2026年增长3.1%、2027年增长3.4%；第一章预测采用截至10月1日的资料。
ANND assessment: allow for energy, trade and funding uncertainty when assessing imported inputs and demand. These are earlier forecasts, not this week’s realised growth.
ANND 分析：评估进口投入及需求时，应考虑能源、贸易和融资不确定性。这些是较早预测，不是本周已实现增长。
Source / 来源：IMF · October World Economic Outlook ↗Actions to consider · 可考虑的行动
- Refresh debt service, vacancy and operating-cost scenarios using actual contracts.
采用实际合同更新偿债、空置及经营成本情景。
- Separate residential rent evidence, CBD office research and retail or industrial tenant analysis.
分别审查住宅租金、CBD办公研究及零售或工业租户情况。
Questions for your next decision · 决策前的问题
- Can net income support the asset if costs rise or occupancy weakens?
如果成本上升或出租率下降，净收入是否仍支持该资产？
- Which data are local, current, annual or forecast rather than realised?
哪些数据是本地、当前、年度或预测，而不是已实现结果？
Discuss a property or business disposal.
Jeffrey Lei · ANND Properties Group Pty Ltd
0405 888 800 · Jeffrey@annd.au